Thursday, November 13, 2008

Daemons against Vanguard - Statistics

Inspired by CrusherJoe's posting on Vanguard Veterans, I thought I'd run a few numbers to see how daemonettes and bloodletters would fare against them. I do like a bit of mathematics...

I'm going to go with the squad that CrusherJoe outlined: 10 veterans, of whom 5 (including the sergeant) have power weapons. They cost 285 points.

For that amount of points, we can purchase 20.4 daemonettes, or 17.8 bloodletters. For the sake of argument (and my head), let's round that to 20 and 18 respectively.

Let's consider a small number of scenarios including both sides doing the charging and the daemons getting fired at before charging.

Case 1. Daemonettes charge the Veterans.
The first point to make with this case is that the daemonettes have fleet. That gives them a little more maneuverability and makes it more likely that they'll achieve a charge early on in a game.

Assuming they've charged in, the daemonettes will go first at initiative 6. On the charge, they get 4 rending attacks each. That's a shocking total of 80. Half will hit: 40. One third of them (13.333) will wound, of which 6.667 are rending hits. Of the non-rending wounds, a mean of 2.222 will not be saved. That makes a whopping 8.889 wounds.

The remaining 1.111 veterans will then strike back, inflicting 1.667 hits and 1.111 wound. The daemonettes invulnerable save translates that in to 0.741 unsaved wounds. Hence, dW=8.148 in favour of the daemonettes. The veterans didn't work out too well here.

Case 2. Veterans charge the Daemonettes.
The Veterans are getting 40 attacks on the charge with 20 being power weapons. The only problem is that the daemonettes are still going first. They're unnaturally fast! So, the daemonettes raise their claws to take the charge and strike with 60 attacks. Following the above logic, 30 will hit and the veterans are taking 6.667 wounds.

But it gets worse. The veterans don't actually get their bonus attack thanks to the mind altering beauty of the daemonettes and their musky, scented aura of acquiescence that they're falling head over heels for. So, the 3.333 veterans are getting 3 attacks each, half of which are power weapons and all at a furious strength 5. So, rounding up: 10 attacks, of which 5 hit and 4.167 cause wounds. Using their invulnerable save, they take 2.778 wounds. Hence dW=3.889 in favour of the daemonettes. The pendulum is still swinging away from the veterans.

Case 3. Bloodletters charge the Veterans.
Bloodletters wield hellblades (power weapons) and have furious charge. Charging, they will strike first with a considerable (18*3=)54 attacks. They'll cause 36 hits and 24 unsavable wounds. Game over. Blood for the blood god. Ten more skulls for the skull throne.

Really, the bloodletters didn't need to cause 24 wounds. Ten would have been ample! It was overkill. So, how many bloodletters are required to cause 10 wounds? Ten wounds would require 15 hits. Fifteen hits needs 22.5 attacks. Rounding up, a mere 6 bloodletters could have got the job done on the charge. Scarily, that's less than 100 points worth of bloodletters.

Case 4. Veterans charge the Bloodletters.
The brave veterans charge for the bloodletters without hesitation, but is it a wise course of action? With their furious charge, they're actually striking first here. They get 40 attacks of which 20 are power weapons (not that that makes much difference to our invulnerable daemons). Of the 40 attacks, 20 hit. Of those 20, 13.333 will wound. A considerable 8.888 daemons flee back to the warp to lick their wounds and plot their vengeance.

More immediately, there are still 9.111 bloodletters left. That makes 18.222 attacks, of which 12.148 hit. Half will wound for a total of 6.074 unsavable wounds.

The veterans have won! (dW=2.814) But at a significant cost: 6 of them are gone. They'll be lucky to get past the next round of combat without their furious charge.

The daemons are rather likely to get shot at prior to either side doing the charging. Let's suppose that 10 bolt shots are fired their way by the 10 marines. There will be 6.667 hits. Against the bloodletters, 3.333 will wound and 2.222 will fail their saves. Against the daemonettes, 4.444 will wound and 2.963 will perish.

Summarizing: charge those bloodletters before they charge you and rapid fire those daemonettes. Or from the other stand point: take large daemon packs to go toe-to-toe with veterans.

As usual folks, I do make mistakes (that's how I learn!), so let me know if you spot a flaw in the mathematics! Thanks again to CrusherJoe for making me think.


Gamers World said...

Cool I like the way it sounds like deamons are amazing but you have the sense to bring us back down to earth by saying SHOOT SHOOT SHOOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CrusherJoe said...

I think you've amply proved the point which anyone that's gone up against daemons already knows: you don't, don't, DON'T want to get into CC with them. Period. The only way to fight daemons is with ranged weapons -- and the longer the range, the better!!

Thanks for doing the math hammer, though, it was interesting to see just how bad (or good, depending on which side of the aisle you're playing on) it really is!

jabberjabber said...

Hey guys, Yes: the message is shoot, and shoot some more, those foul warpspawn!

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...


Sequestered Industries