Icarus Lascannon: Model Making and Statistical Evaluation

One of the nice features about the Bastion and Aegis Defence Line sets are that they come with a couple of "upgrades" in the box.  In the case of the Bastion, the Icarus Lascannon comes supplied. 

Making the Icarus was reasonably straight forward -- it is not the most complex (nor most fiddlesome) model to assemble (I think that award might go to the Shadowsword).  Some of the sprues do leave appreciable nubs on the main plastic once removed, so I found that some time invested in clean up work is essential to get the model looking good.  I think my only minor quibble is that the front end of the lascannon itself comes in two parts.  I'd prefer just one part please!  (equally, I am happy drilling my own barrel holes on miniatures; some other people may not be, so I can see how it is seen as an advantage).

Rules-wise, the Icarus lascannon is not too different to a regular lascannon except for being able to take on deep-striking and flying units nicely.  Assuming a typical (marine) BS of 4, the chances of scoring a penetrating hit on a flyer are then:

AV=10: 3+ to hit; penetrate on 2+ => 56% (with 33% chance of explosion if hit => 18.5% cumulative)

AV=11: 3+ to hit; penetrate on 3+ => 44% (with 33% chance of explosion if hit => 14.8% cumulative)

AV=12: 3+ to hit; penetrate on 4+ => 33% (with 33% chance of explosion if hit => 11.1% cumulative)

AV=13: 3+ to hit; penetrate on 5+ => 22% (with 33% chance of explosion if hit => 7.4% cumulative)

AV=14: 3+ to hit; penetrate on 6+ => 11% (with 33% chance of explosion if hit => 3.7% cumulative)

So, whilst appearing nice against low AV units, I probably wouldn't use it over the quad gun.  The gain is at the high AV end where the quad gun won't dent anything.  But then again, considering the low probabilities involved, why was I shooting at a land raider again?